The 13.5% Probability That Broke the News: How a Prediction Market Became a Geopolitical Rumor
A single number — 13.5% — just hijacked the crypto narrative for a few hours....
Trends
•
Neotoshi
•
2026-07-20
Market Prices
| Coin | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
|
BTC
Bitcoin
|
$66,542.1 | +1.74% |
|
ETH
Ethereum
|
$1,924.64 | +1.38% |
|
SOL
Solana
|
$78 | +0.57% |
|
BNB
BNB Chain
|
$574.8 | +0.24% |
|
XRP
XRP Ledger
|
$1.15 | +3.57% |
|
DOGE
Dogecoin
|
$0.0733 | +0.30% |
|
ADA
Cardano
|
$0.1739 | +4.70% |
|
AVAX
Avalanche
|
$6.62 | +0.50% |
|
DOT
Polkadot
|
$0.8519 | +3.71% |
|
LINK
Chainlink
|
$8.67 | +1.59% |
Fear & Greed
25
Extreme Fear
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202610
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Altseason Index
43
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Tag Hub
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$66,542.1
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,924.64
1
Solana
SOL
$78
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$574.8
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.15
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0733
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1739
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.62
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.8519
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.67
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔵
0xf928...7d36
3h ago
Stake
9,077,418 DOGE
🟢
0x597f...2d70
12m ago
In
3,890,134 USDC
🔴
0x7f30...d7f4
3h ago
Out
876,873 USDC
💡 Smart Money
0xe972...6267
Institutional Custody
+$3.6M
78%
0xfb67...ec36
Arbitrage Bot
+$3.6M
75%
0x9d9c...6e8b
Early Investor
+$1.8M
68%
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